There is no doubt that no one, or very few, will miss 2021. Even a majority of people want 2022 to be as different – for the better – as possible.
Fernando Nunez-Noda / El Político
Last year brought us a resurgence of the pandemic with a variant; a "roller-coaster" of economic downturns and growth; serious environmental concerns; military tensions between Russia and NATO; the endless push-and-pull between the US and China… and many other conflicts from which we will try to draw lessons for this new 2022 year.
1. The "assault on the Capitol" and the political future of Donald Trump
And we put it in quotes because there were attempts to change the narrative and call it a "citizen rebellion" and phrases like that, supposedly justified by electoral fraud that ultimately proved non-existent in 50 state electoral colleges, more than 55 courts of law, the US Congress that endorsed the results and in the Supreme Court itself. Donald Trump lost much of his political clout, by encouraging and defending the event. Right now, there are even doubts that Trump has the strength to compete against Biden for re-election.
An October Pew Research Center poll found that more than 60% of Republicans want Trump to be an "important political figure," but only 44% want him to be the candidate in the next presidential election in 2024.
America’s democracy works. Trying to run over it is a recipe for failure.
2. Biden assumes the presidency
Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46th President of the United States on January 20. There was undoubtedly a change in style, calmer, more institutional, and less personal. Biden is a political veteran with more than 50 years of government service, including the vice presidency under Barack Obama. The beginning was fluid, but the negotiations with Congress have put a stop to his multimillion-dollar social plans that involve infrastructure, tax incentives, increased bureaucracy, and other initiatives that have encountered fierce opposition in the Republican aisle and, lately, in the Democrats themselves. Senator Joe Manchin, for example.
Perhaps Biden could balance his policies with a bit of conservatism, to please some key Republicans, show that he is not dogmatic, and, why not, exercise a little fiscal discipline for his contenders to see.
3. The Covid-19 with the Omicron variant
Hopes that the pandemic would diminish in 2021 were dashed by a wild growth in infections around the world, especially by the SARS-CoV-2 variant popularly called "Omicron", originating where else? in China, it surpassed the "delta". In the US, for example, deaths doubled in relation to 2020 (771,000 vs 385,000).
There are worrying aspects, but also auspicious ones. Among others: these contagious variants, the pressure to the economy to open spaces, the anti-vaccine movement (75% of those who died from Covid are unvaccinated), and the sanitary deficiencies in the Third World.
However, although victory is not to be claimed, the outlook for this new year seems to be more optimistic. The US CDC, in the voice of Dr. Anthony Faucci, predicts that herd immunity could be achieved by the middle of 2022 in the US and other countries.
However, do not trust ourselves too much and let us continue to attack the pandemic as if there were no auspicious prospects.
4. The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan
With Afghanistan, Biden did not have it easy. In the end, the objective was achieved: withdrawing the troops from that troubled Asian nation, but in a wake of chaos, abandoning many allies who were imprisoned in the country and leaving heavy weapons in the hands of the insufferable Taliban. Some analysts see it as an unexpected defeat; others define it as a technical draw because the final objective was achieved.
For future retirements, it may be worth thinking that the only thing left be fatigue… not innocent people.
5. Migration crisis
Especially in the US, on whose southern border (especially that of the Rio Grande in Texas) there has been an almost uncontrollable flow of people desperate to enter the country. The U.S. Border Patrol arrested at least 1.7 million migrants illegally crossing the US-Mexico border in 2021. There is no precise data on how many made it across. All this has affected the approval ratings of Biden to whom, in November 2021, only 31% supported his handling of immigration.
Immigration is a very sensitive topic. The legal allien, welcome, but the non-legal raises a lot of concern.
6. Other international problems and conflicts
Although this deserves detailed analysis, we leave you with some important international points, which moved US politics and economy in 2021:
- The threat of invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin if that country joins NATO, as planned. It is a "detenté" in progress, and it will be this year that we see an outcome.
- Xi Jimping’s expansionist threats in the China Sea, read, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Source of potential geopolitical crisis that we believe China will avoid.
- Venezuela and the impossibility of seeing a credible end to the chavista usurpation.
- Possible consequences of climate change: droughts in North Africa, rising sea levels in Europe, Asia, and, in general, all continents; melting of large polar areas; changes in winds and rains are also altering cropping patterns on all continents.
