Latin America faces in 2022 the challenge of consolidating its economy, currently in recovery after the coronavirus crisis, with a minefield mined by inflation, social and political instability and the impact of a pandemic that is still uncontrolled.
El Político
To a greater or lesser degree, but always present, these three issues are transversal in all the major economies of the region, as well as the rise in the dollar and trade tensions, which add turbulence to a very complex panorama.
Juan Carlos Martínez, professor at IE Business School summarized the situation as follows: “The main challenge facing Latin America in 2022 is the consolidation of growth. An economic growth that has been important in 2021, above 6%, but that will be much lower in 2022 ″ reported Gestión.
Some situations in Latin America
Argentina
The main challenge for Latin America and Argentina for 2022 will be to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to refinance debts for some US $ 43.3 billion, an essential pact for the country to defer the heavy maturities that it must face from March and do not be on the verge of default again.
Without an agreement, Argentina’s greatest challenge will be to deal with a worsening of its already unbalanced macroeconomic variables, mainly the fiscal deficit, exchange rate tensions and high inflation, a gloomy outlook that would strongly condition the economic recovery process that began in 2021. after three years of severe recession.
Brazil
Brazil has all the ingredients to complicate its economic reactivation, with all that that implies for the region as a whole.
It has a stagflation scenario, with inflation and unemployment in double digits, and enormous political uncertainty in 2022 that will be marked by polarized presidential, legislative and regional elections.
Thus, the projections for 2022 are for weak growth (0.5%), weighed down by fragile macroeconomic data, rising interest, the dollar through the roof and investors’ misgivings about the more than likely paralysis of the agenda reforms in Congress during the electoral campaign.
Colombia
Colombia must maintain in 2022 the good economic reactivation rhythm that caused it to grow in 2021 close to 10%, in a context marked by high inflation, unemployment that does not recover the preCOVID levels and electoral appointments.
By 2022, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) projects an expansion of the economy of 5.5%, similar to that forecast by the financial sector.
Inflation, which at the end of November stood at 5.26%, one of the highest in recent years, is the enemy to beat for the country’s authorities, and thus the Banco de la República began a gradual rise in September. of the rates that took him last Friday to raise them half a point to 3%.
Other countries in Latin America
After suffering the biggest economic setback in four decades in 2020, the Chilean economy will end 2021 with a growth of between 10.5% and 11.5%, according to estimates by the Central Bank, supported by international organizations such as the OECD.
However, for 2022 the scenario is expected to be much more difficult, with the growth of around 2% that will continue until 2023; According to the OECD, as the financial support of aid in the face of the pandemic is reduced and the savings and liquidity accumulated by citizens run out.
From the outset, Chile will have to address the overheating of the economy that raised inflation to 6.7% in November; the largest since the 2008 financial crisis and well above the Central Bank’s target range of between 2% and 4%.
Mexico
Mexico expects to grow in 2021 around 6%, driven by consumption and by the renewed Agreement between Mexico; the United States, and Canada (T-MEC), in force since the middle of last year.
But factors such as high inflation – which will close this year over 8% – and initiatives such as energy reform; which seeks to strengthen the state electricity company to the detriment of the private ones, have generated uncertainty among businessmen; they fear it will affect investments.
But Mexican concerns are more about the trade issue and the disturbances in global flows that, for example, affect its important automotive industry.
Peru
Peru’s challenges are also very great and impact almost every aspect of its economy; with the notable nuance of political instability that can derail initially promising prospects.
Growth projections are in a healthy range of between 8.5% and 12.7% and only inflation; at highs for decades (5.83% in November), almost double the estimated target range of 3%; it is a visible and evident macroeconomic problem.
However, the tension and political uncertainties surrounding the government
